Southeast Asia's Shifting Regional Dynamics Amidst Xi Jinping's ASEAN Trade Push and Thai-Cambodian Territorial Dispute

Published on 4.21.25

  The current landscape of international relations in Southeast Asia is marked by shifting dynamics and competing interests. Chinese President Xi Jinping's recent visit to the region has underscored China's commitment to cooperation and openness, as he pledged to sign the ASEAN-China Free Trade Upgrade Protocol with regional countries as soon as possible. China is now Cambodia's largest trading partner, with trade exceeding $15 billion in 2024 and representing nearly 30% of its total trade volume. This has significant implications for the region, as China's efforts to present itself as a source of stability and certainty for Southeast Asia are likely to be well-received by regional countries. ASEAN countries have historically run trade surpluses due to their export-oriented industrialization model encouraged by Washington. However, US tariffs imposed on Southeast Asia are expected to disrupt production networks and damage relations with the region. China's commitment to cooperation and openness may help mitigate these effects, as it seeks to strengthen its economic ties with regional countries. The situation is further complicated by territorial disputes between Thailand and Cambodia over a Thai resort island, which has revived tensions between the two countries. However, this issue does not appear to be directly related to China's efforts in the region.

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