Taiwan Strait Conflict Risk Escalates

Published on 5.24.25

  The escalating tensions between China and Taiwan have significant implications for global security risks. The increased military presence of China around Taiwan, with 15 aircraft and eight vessels detected in a 24-hour period, has raised concerns about the potential for conflict. Beijing's criticism of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te's stance on independence as "separatist" and its promotion of economic decoupling across the Taiwan Strait have further strained relations. The US has declared freedom of navigation and overflight as a core national interest, while also defending Taiwan under a policy of strategic ambiguity. President Joe Biden's statement that the US would defend Taiwan if attacked has been met with skepticism by some analysts, who point out that the US has traditionally maintained this ambiguous stance towards Taiwan. The rising tensions have also led to increased investor anxiety, with China's potential invasion of Taiwan viewed as a high-risk scenario.

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